PROGNOS AG, 2013
Summary
On the one hand, the European Energy Efficiency Directive requires Member States to set an indicative efficiency target (Article 3 EED). In addition, Article 7 EED requires Member States, inter alia, to introduce, for the period from 01.01.2014 to 31.12.2020, an energy-saving obligation for energy supplying companies amounting to 1.5% of the average amount of energy sold to their final customers within a reference period or, alternatively, to implement policy measures with an equivalent energy saving effect. This report examines the options set out in Art. 7 EED and calculates the resulting savings from existing and planned policies in Germany. Overall, the final energy savings of over 50 individual measures were evaluated and grouped into four impact groups (standard setting measures, investment promotion, price impulses and non-investment measures). It concludes that a savings value of 2814 PJ in final energy consumption can be achieved if the transport sector (8933 PJ) is included. Excluding the final energy consumption of the transport sector, the savings value amounts to 2005 PJ. The calculated savings value represents additional yearly savings of 100 PJ (with traffic). Without traffic, an additional 72 PJ should be saved each year, which roughly corresponds to the final energy consumption of the city of Frankfurt am Main. The sum of all quantified measures is just under 2070 PJ. The biggest contributors here are the price impulses from various price and cost components of the prices for fuels, heat and electricity (about 1170 PJ). The group with the second highest cumulative impact are the investment subsidies (about 400 PJ), which are mainly impacted by the KfW programmes. In view of the comparatively straightforward observation period (2014 to 2020), the standards-setting measures for new construction and refurbishment only rank third only due to their longer time constants (about 335 PJ). Experience has shown that it is difficult to adequately capture the impact of non-investment measures in a linear cause-and-effect relationship. Calculative, these measures can account for approximately 170 PJ of savings. Price impulses can yield an annual savings of nearly 170 PJ, which adds up to approximately 1170 PJ over the period under consideration. The impact of the other policy areas accumulates, with an average of just over 30 PJ of savings added per year, to cumulative savings of well over 900 PJ of savings.
Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI et al., 2014
Summary
This study has two main objectives: first to report on the evaluation of the achievement of the 2020 energy efficiency target of 20%, second to discuss energy efficiency potentials in two different time horizons (2020, 2030) mainly in view of a 2030 target frame for energy efficiency. Therefore, an assessment of the effectiveness of a target selection of national measures and policies up to 2020 (Bottom-up policy analysis of Art. 3 of the EED) is carried out, as well as a decomposition analysis of past energy efficiency achievements (2000-2012 and 2008-12) and projection to 2020. Also, policies up to 2020 based on national and EU policies and energy efficiency potentials up to 2030 are analysed applying bottom-up modelling. The results are presented as a percentage reduction compared to a fixed baseline (the PRIMES 2007 baseline). For the energy efficiency gap for 2020, the most recent PRIMES 2013 projections find a gap of 3% points for primary energy and of 4% points for final energy. The comparison of the different PRIMES projections by adjusting changing activity levels shows that most of the progress since 2007 is due to activity changes and roughly about 4-5% points from energy efficiency policies since then. Accordingly, this study finds with the three methods (bottom-up policy analysis, decomposition analysis and modelling analysis) for both primary and final energy a gap 3% to 0% point, the latter for the bottom-up policy analysis. This implies, however, that a variety of planned measures are implemented by the EU Member States although it is confirmed through interviews that a number of measures proposed in the NEEAPs 2 and the Art. 7 notifications will have reduced impacts as compared to the planning. For 2030 the study finds, using the same metrics as for the 2020 target that economic potentials from a macro-economic perspective, using low discount rates and assumptions on non-economic instruments instead of economic instruments to overcome non-economic barriers, may be 37% in 2030 for final energy and 40% for primary energy. The baseline scenario reaches around 24% reduction in 2030.
Institut Wohnen und Umwelt GmbH; Fraunhofer Institute for Manufacturing Technology and Advanced Materials IFAM, 2016
Summary
The KfW programmes “Energy-efficient Refurbishment” and “Energy-efficient Construction” are the most significant providers of financial incentives for more energy efficiency in the German housing sector. Basic data for commitments of 2015 were collected through written surveys of a sample from the recipients of promotion. Model calculations were carried out to determine quantitative results for the energy savings, greenhouse gas reductions, as well as savings in heating costs and employment effects associated with the supported modernisation and new-built projects. Under the "Energy-efficient Refurbishment" programme, energy-saving refurbishment projects are promoted by loans at favourable conditions or grants. In 2015, just below 105,000 promotional commitments to modernise about 237,000 dwellings were allocated. In about 40 % of all promoted buildings and nearly all KfW Efficiency Houses, thermal insulation measures have been carried out. The compliance with quality standards (e.g. insulation thickness) go far beyond the requirements set out by the Energy Saving Ordinance (EnEV). In 68 % of the promotional cases the main heat supply system was replaced; this applies to 81 % of KfW Efficiency Houses. Solar systems (solar thermal or PV) were installed in 11 % of the modernisation projects and in 44 % of the KfW Efficiency Houses respectively. Ventilation systems – mostly together with heat recovery – have been installed in about 8 % of all promotional cases or 37 % of the KfW Efficiency Houses. These promoted modernisation projects’ annual final energy savings amount to 1,400 GWh per year. With regard to new buildings, the KfW "Energy-efficient Construction" programme promotes forward-looking standards related to the entire building, where special benchmarks concerning primary energy and thermal insulation must be met. Requirements for new buildings according to the particular EnEV in force are used as a reference case for the determination of energy savings, greenhouse gas reductions and savings in heating costs. In 2015, the programme supported approximately 83,000 building projects comprising 142,000 dwellings. Judging by the number of building permits in 2015, the programme reached a share of around 53 % of all new residential constructions in Germany. Single-layer brick walls had a total share of 55 % (27 % solid brick walls with additional insulation, 8 % insulation-filled bricks, 20 % without additional thermal insulation). Also very common are thermally insulated timber constructions (26 %), and cavity walls (with insulation in the space between the two leafs) at 17 %. Most of the new buildings are heated by electric heat pumps (49 %). Gas heaters (primarily natural gas) have a share of 33 %, district heating 12 % and biomass heating systems about 6 %. Solar thermal or PV systems were installed on 47 % of all buildings, ventilation systems (predominantly with heat recovery) in 59 %. The annual final energy savings in 2015 amount to approximately 382 GWh per year compared to the EnEV reference case. The primary energy savings (non-renewable sources of energy) are calculated to be about 540 GWh per year. The reduction in greenhouse gases adds up to around 139,000 tonnes of CO2e per year (CO2 equivalents with upstream processes) when compared to the reference case. Accordingly, the annual savings in heating costs come to around EUR 59 million per year. Total savings in heating costs of around EUR 2 billion result (present value discounted to 2015) based on the assumption of a useful life span of 30 years.
DianaÜrge-Vorsatz, Agnes Kelemen, Sergio Tirado-Herrero, StefanThomas, Johannes Thema, Nora Mzavanadze, Dorothea Hauptstock, Felix Suerkemper, Jens Teubler, Mukesh Gupta, Souran Chatterjee, 2016
Summary
The paper identifies a few key challenges to the evaluation of the co-impacts of low-carbon options and demonstrates that these are more complex for co-impacts than for the direct ones. Such challenges include several layers of additionality, high context dependency, and accounting for distributional effects.